Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Los Angeles Chargers
7-4
40
VS
New England Patriots
3-11
7
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chargers 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Chargers won by 33
COMBINED SCORE
47
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
67%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 40
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 48
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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