Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles — Win Probability
FINAL
Dallas Cowboys
4-5
7
VS
Philadelphia Eagles
13-2
41
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Eagles 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
Philadelphia Eagles won by 34
COMBINED SCORE
48
Margin of Victory — Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
20%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
23%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 48.
O/U LINE 30
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 40
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 44
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 45 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
30% over70% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
Negative means Philadelphia Eagles lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +11
P95: +33