PHI33
FINAL
36WAS
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia Eagles logo
Philadelphia Eagles
13-1
33
VS
Washington Commanders logo
Washington Commanders
8-5
36
Market line: PHI -3.0, total 48 · Model expected score: Philadelphia Eagles 25.5 – Washington Commanders 22.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Eagles 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Washington Commanders won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
69
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Margin of Victory — Washington Commanders (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
59%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 69.

O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 44
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 48
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
39% over ✓61% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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