New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Giants
2-9
7
VS
Atlanta Falcons
4-6
34
Market line: ATL -8.5, total 41.5 · Model expected score: New York Giants 16.4 – Atlanta Falcons 25.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Falcons 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
Atlanta Falcons won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
41
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Margin of Victory — Atlanta Falcons (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
26%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
18%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 41.
O/U LINE 30
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 40
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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