New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
3-10
21
VS
Buffalo Bills
10-3
24
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
45
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
18%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
25%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 45.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Negative means Buffalo Bills lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -10
Median: +12
P95: +34