Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
2-10
6
VS
Cincinnati Bengals
4-5
24
Market line: CIN -6.0, total 49.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 21.7 – Cincinnati Bengals 27.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bengals 68%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cincinnati Bengals won by 18
COMBINED SCORE
30
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Margin of Victory — Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
32%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
14%
Won by 21+
13%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 30.
O/U LINE 30
93% over7% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
43% over57% under ✓
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