New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Jets
1-7
32
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars
3-10
25
Market line: NYJ -3.5, total 40.5 · Model expected score: New York Jets 22.0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 18.6
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jets 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
New York Jets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
57
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 57.
O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 48
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 52
20% over ✓80% under
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