Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-10
13
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6-3
28
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
41
Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
15%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 41.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 44
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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