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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers — Win Probability

FINAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5-3
26
VS
Carolina Panthers logo
Carolina Panthers
3-8
23
Market line: TB -6.5, total 44 · Model expected score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.3 – Carolina Panthers 18.8
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
49
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Margin of Victory — Carolina Panthers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
69%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 49.

O/U LINE 30
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 40
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 44
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 52
28% over72% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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