Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-9
17
VS
Kansas City Chiefs
8-2
19
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 83%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
36
Margin of Victory — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
17%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
26%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 36.
O/U LINE 30
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Negative means Kansas City Chiefs lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -9
Median: +13
P95: +34