Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants — Win Probability
FINAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4-3
30
VS
New York Giants
2-5
7
Market line: TB -3.0, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.7 – New York Giants 19.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
37
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Margin of Victory — New York Giants (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
59%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 37.
O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
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