San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
San Francisco 49ers
2-5
10
VS
Green Bay Packers
7-3
38
Market line: GB -1.5, total 48 · Model expected score: San Francisco 49ers 23.3 – Green Bay Packers 24.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 28
COMBINED SCORE
48
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 48.
O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 44
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 48
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
38% over62% under ✓
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