Kansas City Chiefs vs Carolina Panthers — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
7-2
30
VS
Carolina Panthers
3-7
27
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
57
Margin of Victory — Carolina Panthers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
81%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
5%
Won by 8-14
5%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 57.
O/U LINE 30
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 40
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 41 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 48
30% over ✓70% under
O/U LINE 52
21% over ✓79% under
Projected Margin Range — Carolina Panthers (Home)
Negative means Carolina Panthers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -33
Median: -12
P95: +10