DET24
FINAL
6IND
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Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
6-1
24
VS
Indianapolis Colts logo
Indianapolis Colts
5-5
6
Market line: DET -6.5, total 49 · Model expected score: Detroit Lions 27.7 – Indianapolis Colts 21.2
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Detroit Lions won by 18
COMBINED SCORE
30
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Margin of Victory — Indianapolis Colts (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
69%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 30.

O/U LINE 30
92% over8% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 49 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
41% over59% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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