Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-7
19
VS
Miami Dolphins
2-5
34
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Dolphins 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
Miami Dolphins won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
53
Margin of Victory — Miami Dolphins (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
15%
Won by 21+
15%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 53.
O/U LINE 30
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 40
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 44
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 45 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 52
30% over ✓70% under
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