LAR28
FINAL
22NE
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Los Angeles Rams vs New England Patriots — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Rams logo
Los Angeles Rams
3-4
28
VS
New England Patriots logo
New England Patriots
3-6
22
Market line: LAR -6.0, total 44 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Rams 25.0 – New England Patriots 19.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rams 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Rams won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
50
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Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
67%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 50.

O/U LINE 30
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 40
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 44
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 52
27% over73% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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