Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
7-1
21
VS
Buffalo Bills
8-2
30
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
51
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
53%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
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Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
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