Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability
FINAL
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-8
6
VS
Detroit Lions
5-1
52
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
Detroit Lions won by 46
COMBINED SCORE
58
Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
23%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
20%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 58.
O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 44
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 48
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
46% over ✓54% under
Projected Margin Range — Detroit Lions (Home)
Negative means Detroit Lions lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -12
Median: +10
P95: +32