Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears — Win Probability
FINAL
Green Bay Packers
6-3
20
VS
Chicago Bears
4-4
19
Market line: GB -2.5, total 44.5 · Model expected score: Green Bay Packers 23.5 – Chicago Bears 21.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
39
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Margin of Victory — Chicago Bears (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
57%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 39.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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