Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
2-7
14
VS
New Orleans Saints
3-5
35
Market line: NO -1.5, total 42 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 20.3 – New Orleans Saints 21.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Saints 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
New Orleans Saints won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
49
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Margin of Victory — New Orleans Saints (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
45%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 49.
O/U LINE 30
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 40
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 42 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
44% over ✓56% under
O/U LINE 48
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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