Minnesota Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability
FINAL
Minnesota Vikings
5-1
12
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-7
7
Market line: MIN -4.0, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Minnesota Vikings 25.7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Vikings 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
Minnesota Vikings won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
19
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 19.
O/U LINE 30
90% over10% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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