Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs — Win Probability
FINAL
Denver Broncos
4-5
14
VS
Kansas City Chiefs
6-1
16
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
30
Margin of Victory — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
24%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 30.
O/U LINE 30
83% over17% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Negative means Kansas City Chiefs lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -12
Median: +10
P95: +31