BUF30
FINAL
20IND
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Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts — Win Probability

FINAL
Buffalo Bills logo
Buffalo Bills
7-2
30
VS
Indianapolis Colts logo
Indianapolis Colts
4-4
20
Market line: BUF -4.0, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Buffalo Bills 25.8 – Indianapolis Colts 21.7
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
50
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Margin of Victory — Indianapolis Colts (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 50.

O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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