New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Saints
2-4
22
VS
Carolina Panthers
1-7
23
Market line: NO -3.5, total 46 · Model expected score: New Orleans Saints 24.7 – Carolina Panthers 21.2
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Saints 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
Carolina Panthers won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
45
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Margin of Victory — Carolina Panthers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
61%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 45.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 44
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 46 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
33% over67% under ✓
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