New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
2-5
17
VS
Tennessee Titans
1-6
20
Market line: TEN -3.0, total 38.5 · Model expected score: New England Patriots 17.7 – Tennessee Titans 20.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Titans 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tennessee Titans won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
37
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Margin of Victory — Tennessee Titans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 37.
O/U LINE 30
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 38.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
16% over84% under ✓
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