Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
Detroit Lions
4-1
24
VS
Green Bay Packers
6-2
14
Market line: GB -1.0, total 50.5 · Model expected score: Detroit Lions 24.7 – Green Bay Packers 25.7
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
Detroit Lions won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
38
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
47%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 38.
O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
45% over55% under ✓
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