Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens — Win Probability
FINAL
Denver Broncos
4-4
10
VS
Baltimore Ravens
4-3
41
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Ravens 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
Baltimore Ravens won by 31
COMBINED SCORE
51
Margin of Victory — Baltimore Ravens (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
24%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 48
37% over ✓63% under
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Baltimore Ravens (Home)
Negative means Baltimore Ravens lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -12
Median: +10
P95: +31