Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals — Win Probability
FINAL
Chicago Bears
4-2
9
VS
Arizona Cardinals
3-4
29
Market line: CHI -1.0, total 46 · Model expected score: Chicago Bears 23.5 – Arizona Cardinals 22.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bears 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
Arizona Cardinals won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
38
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Margin of Victory — Arizona Cardinals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
53%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
5%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 38.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 46 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
33% over67% under ✓
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