NYJ22
FINAL
25NE
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New York Jets vs New England Patriots — Win Probability

FINAL
New York Jets logo
New York Jets
1-2
22
VS
New England Patriots logo
New England Patriots
1-5
25
Market line: NYJ -7.0, total 40 · Model expected score: New York Jets 23.5 – New England Patriots 16.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jets 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
47
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Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
70%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.

O/U LINE 30
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 40
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 40 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 48
27% over73% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
18% over82% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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