Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
5-1
27
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
2-5
20
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
47
Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
78%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Negative means Las Vegas Raiders lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -32
Median: -10
P95: +12