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Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability

FINAL
Green Bay Packers logo
Green Bay Packers
5-2
30
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars logo
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-5
27
Market line: GB -3.5, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Green Bay Packers 25.5 – Jacksonville Jaguars 22.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
57
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 57.

O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over ✓63% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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