Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
Tennessee Titans
1-4
10
VS
Buffalo Bills
4-2
34
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 24
COMBINED SCORE
44
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
16%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 44.
O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
59% over ✓41% under
O/U LINE 43 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
25% over75% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Negative means Buffalo Bills lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -14
Median: +8
P95: +29