Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability
FINAL
Seattle Seahawks
3-1
34
VS
Atlanta Falcons
2-1
14
Market line: ATL -2.5, total 46.5 · Model expected score: Seattle Seahawks 22.0 – Atlanta Falcons 24.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Falcons 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
Seattle Seahawks won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
48
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Margin of Victory — Atlanta Falcons (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 48.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
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