Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-4
15
VS
Los Angeles Rams
1-4
20
Market line: LAR -3.5, total 43.5 · Model expected score: Las Vegas Raiders 20.0 – Los Angeles Rams 23.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rams 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Rams won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
35
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Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Rams (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 35.
O/U LINE 30
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
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