Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
4-1
28
VS
San Francisco 49ers
1-3
18
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
46
Margin of Victory — San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
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