Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
Houston Texans
5-2
22
VS
Green Bay Packers
4-2
24
Market line: GB -1.5, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Houston Texans 23.0 – Green Bay Packers 24.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
46
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
46%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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