Houston Texans vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Houston Texans
4-2
41
VS
New England Patriots
1-3
21
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
Houston Texans won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
62
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 62.
O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 48
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 52
20% over ✓80% under
Projected Margin Range — New England Patriots (Home)
Negative means New England Patriots lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -29
Median: -7
P95: +15