Cleveland Browns vs Philadelphia Eagles — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
1-4
16
VS
Philadelphia Eagles
5-1
20
Market line: PHI -6.5, total 43.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 18.5 – Philadelphia Eagles 25.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Eagles 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Philadelphia Eagles won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
36
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Margin of Victory — Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 36.
O/U LINE 30
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
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