Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears — Win Probability
FINAL
Carolina Panthers
1-3
10
VS
Chicago Bears
2-1
36
Market line: CHI -4.0, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Carolina Panthers 19.3 – Chicago Bears 23.3
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bears 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
Chicago Bears won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
46
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Margin of Victory — Chicago Bears (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
38%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
10%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
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