Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers — Win Probability
FINAL
Arizona Cardinals
1-3
24
VS
San Francisco 49ers
1-2
23
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
Arizona Cardinals won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
47
Margin of Victory — San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
16%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 40
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 44
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 48
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
43% over57% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Negative means San Francisco 49ers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -14
Median: +8
P95: +30