Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals — Win Probability
FINAL
Washington Commanders
1-2
42
VS
Arizona Cardinals
1-2
14
Market line: ARI -4.5, total 49.5 · Model expected score: Washington Commanders 22.6 – Arizona Cardinals 27.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cardinals 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
Washington Commanders won by 28
COMBINED SCORE
56
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Margin of Victory — Arizona Cardinals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 56.
O/U LINE 30
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 40
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 44
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 48
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
43% over ✓57% under
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