NO24
FINAL
26ATL
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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Saints logo
New Orleans Saints
2-1
24
VS
Atlanta Falcons logo
Atlanta Falcons
0-1
26
Market line: ATL -1.5, total 46 · Model expected score: New Orleans Saints 22.2 – Atlanta Falcons 23.8
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Falcons 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
Atlanta Falcons won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
50
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Margin of Victory — Atlanta Falcons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
45%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 50.

O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 44
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 46 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
44% over ✓56% under
O/U LINE 52
33% over67% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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