New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
1-1
13
VS
San Francisco 49ers
0-2
30
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
San Francisco 49ers won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
43
Margin of Victory — San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
24%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
17%
Won by 21+
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 43.
O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
19% over81% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Negative means San Francisco 49ers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -12
Median: +9
P95: +31