Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
1-2
16
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
1-2
20
Market line: CLE -1.5, total 39 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 20.3 – Las Vegas Raiders 18.7
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Browns 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
Las Vegas Raiders won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
36
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Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
55%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 36.
O/U LINE 30
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 39 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
17% over83% under ✓
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