DET20
FINAL
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Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
0-1
20
VS
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona Cardinals
1-1
13
Market line: DET -4.5, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Detroit Lions 28.0 – Arizona Cardinals 23.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
Detroit Lions won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
33
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Margin of Victory — Arizona Cardinals (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
63%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 33.

O/U LINE 30
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 40
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
49% over51% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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