DEN26
FINAL
7TB
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Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Broncos logo
Denver Broncos
0-3
26
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2-0
7
Market line: TB -5.0, total 43 · Model expected score: Denver Broncos 19.0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 64%
ACTUAL RESULT
Denver Broncos won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
33
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Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
36%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 33.

O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 43 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
25% over75% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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