TB20
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability

FINAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-0
20
VS
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
0-0
16
Market line: DET -6.5, total 48.5 · Model expected score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.0 – Detroit Lions 27.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
36
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 36.

O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
39% over61% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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