San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings — Win Probability
FINAL
San Francisco 49ers
0-0
17
VS
Minnesota Vikings
1-0
23
Market line: SF -6.5, total 46 · Model expected score: San Francisco 49ers 26.3 – Minnesota Vikings 19.7
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Minnesota Vikings won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
40
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Margin of Victory — Minnesota Vikings (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
69%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 40.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
67% over33% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 46 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
33% over67% under ✓
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