Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos — Win Probability
FINAL
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-1
13
VS
Denver Broncos
0-2
6
Market line: PIT -3.0, total 40.5 · Model expected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 21.7 – Denver Broncos 18.8
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Steelers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
19
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Margin of Victory — Denver Broncos (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 19.
O/U LINE 30
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
19% over81% under ✓
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