LV26
FINAL
23BAL
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens — Win Probability

FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders logo
Las Vegas Raiders
0-1
26
VS
Baltimore Ravens logo
Baltimore Ravens
1-0
23
Market line: BAL -7.5, total 44.5 · Model expected score: Las Vegas Raiders 18.5 – Baltimore Ravens 26.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Ravens 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Las Vegas Raiders won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
49
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Margin of Victory — Baltimore Ravens (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 49.

O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 44
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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